Fossil fuel-based power plants will lead again

Mahfuz Emran : Payra coal-based power plant to start production in fiscal year 2020-21. Barisal coal power plant came into production last financial year. Rampal’s first unit started production at the same time. It’s second unit has started production in the current financial year. SS Power has started full commercial production this fiscal year. Besides, the Matarbari coal power plant is likely to be fully operational by the end of the current financial year. In this, the production of coal electricity in the country is increasing a lot.
Meanwhile, electricity import from India is also increasing after Adani’s electricity came to the country. Besides, 40 megawatts of electricity is expected to be imported from Nepal in the next financial year. In all, along with coal, the share of imported electricity will increase. However, the share of electricity generation based on this energy will decrease in the future as gas supply is not available as expected. Along with the production of large power plants, oil-based power generation will be gradually reduced. This will bring major changes in the current 2023-24 and next fiscal year 2024-25 in the power sector of the country.
According to the data of the Power Development Board (PDB), the growth in power generation in the country in the fiscal year 2022-23 was only 3.68 percent. This brings the net generation (including imports) to 87,040 GWh. However, in the current fiscal year, the growth of electricity production has been estimated at 10.09 percent and next fiscal year at 8.99 percent.
In this, the quantity of net electricity production in the financial years 2023-24 and 2024-25 will be 95,805 gigawatt hours and 104,423 gigawatt hours respectively.
In the last financial year, coal-based power plants produced 10,79 gigawatt hours or 11.58 percent. In the current financial year, the amount of potential electricity production from this sector has been estimated at 22,188 gigawatt hours or 23.16 percent. And the potential production of coal-based centers in the next financial year has been estimated at 29,186 gigawatt hours or 27.95 percent. On the other hand, the amount of electricity import from India last financial year was 10,427 gigawatt hours or 11.98 percent. Due to the addition of Adani’s electricity, the current fiscal year’s import may increase to 16,325 gigawatt hours or 17.04 percent and next fiscal year to 18,890 gigawatt hours or 18.09 percent.
Meanwhile, 51.25 percent or 44,608 gigawatt hours of electricity produced in the last financial year came from gas-based plants. An average of 964 mmcf of gas was supplied daily for this purpose. Among them, the maximum gas is 189 mmcf and the minimum is 800 mmcf. However, it is assumed that the gas supply in the electricity sector will be slightly increased in the current financial year. In this case, in the financial year 2023-24, the power sector can get an average of 1,400 MMCF (million cubic feet) of gas per day. Of this, a maximum of 1006 mmcf and a minimum of 731 mmcf of gas can be given daily.
Gas supply is increasing but it is insufficient compared to the demand. Because currently 2,241 mmcf of gas is needed to run the gas-powered plants at full speed. The production of gas-fired power plants may increase to 47,519 gigawatt hours or 49.60 percent in the current financial year due to a slight increase in gas supply. And 2024-25 financial year gas supply may decrease for power generation. In this case, the potential gas supply is estimated to be 947 mmcf per day. Of this, a maximum of 1,158 mmcf and a minimum of 720 mmcf of gas can be obtained daily. 50,958 gigawatt hours or 48.40 percent will come from gas-based plants.
According to the data of PDB, the current and next fiscal year, electricity generation will decrease the most in furnace oil and diesel-powered plants. Out of this, 18,322 gigawatt hours or 21.05 percent of electricity came from furnace oil-fired plants last financial year. In the current fiscal year, it will be reduced to 7,636 gigawatt hours or 7.97 percent. In the next fiscal year, it will further decrease to 2,579 gigawatt hours or 2.47 percent.
Meanwhile, in the last financial year, electricity came from diesel-powered plants 2,324 gigawatt hours or 2.67 percent. In the current financial year, it will come down to zero. At this time only 441 gigawatt hours or 0.46 percent of electricity will be available from diesel powered plants. And next financial year it will drop to zero. However, Rooppur nuclear power plant will be operational at that time. In this next financial year, electricity will be available from that center 1,075 gigawatt hours or 1.07 percent.
Apart from these, only 670 gigawatt hours or 0.77 percent of electricity generation from renewable energy sources (solar, wind) last financial year. In the current fiscal year, 901 gigawatt hours or 0.94 percent can come from this sector and in the next fiscal year 1,337 gigawatt hours or 1.28 percent. And in the last financial year, hydro power was available at 609 gigawatt hours or 0.70 percent. In the current financial year, it will increase slightly to 805 gigawatt hours or 0.84 percent and in the next financial year to 783 gigawatt hours or 0.75 percent.