Government debt to be Tk 24.39 tr in 5 years

Projection of Finance Ministry

Mahfuz Emran: Declining growth in revenue collection is putting pressure on government expenditure. The government is forced to borrow from various sources. Sometimes this loan is taken from central bank, sometimes from commercial bank. Sometimes the government is raising loans directly from the people through the sale of savings bonds. Apart from this, foreign loans are also being taken to implement various development projects. As the size of the budget increases, so does the amount of debt.
The amount of debt is also increasing year by year as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). The Ministry of Finance has estimated that the debt of the government will increase more than double in five years. It came out in a report of the finance department. It can be seen that compared to the fiscal year 2020-21, the debt of the government in the fiscal year 2025-26 will be 2.13 times or 213 percent.
According to the information of the report, the amount of debt of the government for the financial year 2020-21 was Tk 11 lakh 44 thousand 300 crores. Out of this, the amount of loans taken from domestic sources was Tk 723 thousand 900 crores and foreign loans were Tk 420 thousand 400 crores. In the next financial year, the debt of the government increased to Tk 13 lakh 39 thousand crores. That is, the debt of the government has increased by Tk 1 lakh 94 thousand 700 crores in the fiscal year 2021-22. At the end of that fiscal year, the government’s internal debt was Tk 8,47,900 crore and foreign debt was Tk 4,91,100 crore.
In the fiscal year 2022-23, the debt of the government increased to Tk 15 lakh 77 thousand 800 crore (temporary calculation). According to this, the foreign debt increased by Tk 2 lakh 38 thousand 800 crores last financial year. At the end of the last financial year, the amount of debt taken by the government from internal sources stood at Tk 9 lakh 97 thousand 400 crore and foreign debt was Tk 5 lakh 80 thousand 400 crore.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance has projected the government’s debt for the next three fiscal years. By the end of the current financial year, the debt of the government may increase to Tk 18 lakh 32 thousand 900 crores. That is, the debt of the government may increase by Tk 2 lakh 55 thousand 100 crores in the fiscal year 2023-24. At the end of the current financial year, the internal debt of the government may stand at Tk 11 lakh 39 thousand 300 crores and foreign debt at Tk 6 lakh 93 thousand 600 crores.
According to the projected calculations, the debt of the government at the end of the next financial year may stand at Tk 21 lakh 18 thousand crores. In other words, the debt of the government may increase by Tk 2 lakh 85 thousand 100 crores in the fiscal year 2024-25. According to this, at the end of the next financial year, the internal debt of the government may stand at Tk 13 lakh 7 thousand 100 crores and foreign debt at Tk 8 lakh 10 thousand 900 crores.
Meanwhile, at the end of the next fiscal year 2025-26, the government’s debt has been projected at Tk 24 lakh 38 thousand 800 crore. That is, the debt of the government may increase by Tk 320 thousand 800 crores in that financial year. According to this, at the end of the fiscal year 2025-26, the internal debt of the government may stand at Tk 14 lakh 97 thousand 200 crores and foreign debt at Tk 9 lakh 41 thousand 500 crores.
Analyzing the data, it can be seen that the debt-GDP ratio of the government in the fiscal year 2020-21 will increase from 32.4 percent to 38.6 percent. In this case, the government’s internal debt-GDP ratio was 20.5 percent in fiscal year 2025-21, which will increase to 23.6 percent in fiscal year 2025-26. Similarly, the external debt-GDP ratio will increase from 11.9 percent in FY 2025-26 to 14.8 percent in FY 2025-26.
Over five years, both domestic and foreign debt will increase, but the ratio of the two types of debt will change. By FY 2025-26, the domestic debt ratio will decrease slightly and the foreign debt ratio will increase slightly. According to the information, domestic debt was 63.3 percent of the total debt of the government in fiscal year 2025-21, which will be 61.4 percent in fiscal year 2025-26. On the other hand, the foreign debt ratio of the government in the fiscal year 2020-21 was 36.7 percent, in the fiscal year 2025-26 it will stand at 38.6 percent.