Farhad Chowdhury: After many days, politics is in the driving seat. This is true but the problem is not over. Looking for smiling people in the market. A month never ends with the income. The price of goods and the cost of living have ended many dreams. I don’t know how many people have left this city without being able to settle accounts. Dengue has appeared in a terrible form. Every day new names appear in the register of deaths. There is very little talk about it. Although some are joking.
In this situation, politics is the most talked about. In Bangladesh, however, this is not a surprising phenomenon. It was said that the people of this country eat and drink politics. But the situation has changed a lot in the last few years.
The main reason for this is the loss of control of the people over politics. You can ask, they had control or when! Yet they were not returned from the center in at least four elections after Ershad’s fall. Not many dead people voted. Everyone knows how the last two elections went.
Neither national nor local elections have changed the situation much. In this situation, it is not surprising that people lose interest in politics. Another election is knocking at the door. At this time, the main question from the village tea shop to the diplomatic neighborhood of Gulshan is one – what is happening? What will happen?
The next 130 days are considered to be the fateful time. At this time every day can be eventful. Ruler vs opposition camp, US vs Russia-China, India in scenario. The game is actually versatile.
The ruling party is not willing to make any concessions. Their clear words will be nothing outside the constitution. In other words, the preparations for another election are going on by keeping the current government in power. Awami League has already started checking the popularity of party candidates. There have been several surveys.
Ahead of the election, there has been a reshuffle in the administration and the police. Recently, there have been expressions of support for the government from various levels. The government is apparently not interested in dialogue. However, if the opposition party proposes or if the situation changes, Awami League may be interested in dialogue.
Some relaxation may also be given in the case of inclusion of ministers in the election government. Apart from this, apparently, the government party is not likely to give concessions. A few days ago, an analyst publicly commented that a state of emergency may be declared if the situation gets out of control.
Indian analyst Dr. Sriradha Dutta said in an interview to a newspaper in Dhaka, “Many great things have been done in Bangladesh during the current government. Many good works have been done including Padma Bridge, Metro Rail. Therefore, this government was supposed to return to power in a fair and impartial election. But for the past few months or a year, a matter of fear is being noticed in this government.
In the last few months, some concessions have been given to the opposition in the field, but in the coming days, the law-and-order forces and the Awami League may take a tougher stance. However, the government is not managing the field. Special attention has to be paid to the activities of the western world led by the United States of America.
There have been public comments against the United States from the highest levels of government. What will the ruling party do if control ever loosens? Will there be a discount? There are rumors of change of governance, emergency.
If you look closely, it seems that the politics of Bangladesh is only about conflict. There is no possibility or scope for compromise. But this is not the whole truth. In 1990, the political parties were able to compromise among themselves.
Because of that compromise, the then Chief Justice Sahabuddin Ahmed became the head of the caretaker government. Later he returned to the post of Chief Justice. Even in 1996, in the face of intense agitation, a compromise was reached behind the scenes. In the light of which the Thirteenth Amendment was included in the Constitution.
The question is, is there any possibility of such a compromise this time? BNP wants caretaker government. Awami League wants elections according to the constitution. Jatiya Party Chairman GM Quader told India Newspapers that he has a formula beyond that.
He did not disclose anything about his formula. But it said, he will present it when there is a dialogue between the political parties. GM Quader recently visited India. However, he did not say much about the visit to the media.
There is also talk of whether he needs ‘hospital treatment’ like his brother. Because during his visit to India, there was a few hours of drama about the chairmanship in Japan. However, many people say that it is like Parimani’s family. There can be such a drama. Be that as it may, GM Quader remains in the discussion in the current political scenario despite the declining popularity of the Jatiya Party.
The US Embassy has met him several times over the past few months. Also under discussion is an election-term government based on a political compromise involving political parties. Apart from this, legal experts also say that the review of the case by the caretaker government is yet to be filed.
A review can be filed in the Appellate Division if there is a political settlement. They recalled that the Supreme Court in the summary order of the case had mentioned that the caretaker government could have two terms. In that case, the judiciary was advised to be kept out of it. Apart from this, another aspect has also been mentioned by some jurists. Political parties can choose neutral people if they want. In all cases, first of all, political consensus is needed.
For now, the possibility of a political compromise does not appear. BNP has been agitating for the resignation of the government and elections under the caretaker government. The party is carrying out programs like marches and rallies.
However, recently BNP faced strict police action while holding a sit-in program at the entrance of Dhaka. Some of the team’s internal weaknesses also surfaced anew. Due to which the Chhatra Dal president had to lose his post. Has the current program of BNP created any pressure on the government? What kind of programs are coming in the coming days? What is the probability of success in the movement?
Recently, I asked a leader known to be close to the Acting Chairman of BNP, Tariq Rahman.
He said that more vigorous programs are coming soon. The month of September is especially considered important. Before the last two elections, there was some doubt among the top leadership of BNP. The top leader is confident about success this time.
However, political analysts say, there are various discussions about how strong the position of BNP will be if the ruling party and the administration go hardline.
Islamist parties or organizations like Jamaat, Hefazat and Islami Andolan have less movement this time. They developed a kind of communication with both the government and opposition camps. Jamaat leaders say that there is no possibility of compromise with the government.
However, there is no Jamaat in the simultaneous movement of BNP. Hefazat never took part in direct political programs. The Islamic movement supported the BNP’s demands but did not join the simultaneous movement. However, it is clear from the reports of several Indian newspapers that the establishment of India has some kind of objection towards Islamic parties.
However, the election of Bangladesh has become an international issue. The position of China and Russia is clear. They consider the election as an internal matter of Bangladesh. The Chinese president also said that China is against foreign interference in Bangladesh. The United States and its Western allies have repeatedly expressed their position on free and fair elections.
The US has already announced a visa policy for Bangladesh. Rumors are spreading every day about what the country’s next move might be. Various comments are being published in Indian newspapers about India’s position. However, many things may become clear during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India next month.
One sided election like 2014. Elections about the fraction of BNP. Delayed selection. dramatic reconciliation. Free, fair and participatory elections. Various pictures in the scene. Politics is not astrology anymore. Here’s what would be difficult to swear by. But it sure will be breathtaking days ahead.
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