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Bangladesh - January 6, 2024

Boat will win in 80 pc seats

Perceptions of observers

Rabiul Haque : The 12th Jatiya Sangshad vote today. Voters will elect representatives in 299 constituencies of the Jatiya Sangshad today, January 7, from 8 am to 4 pm. The Election Commission has already completed all preparations. Now just waiting for the verdict of the people. The overall situation says that Awami League is going to form the government for the fourth consecutive time with a single majority. Observers believe that boat candidates are going to win as many as 80 percent of the seats in the parliament.
As the polling of Naogaon-2 seat was postponed due to the death of a candidate, voting is being held simultaneously in 299 seats of the National Assembly on Sunday. Although several parties including BNP boycotted the elections, there was no shortage of competition in this election. Apart from the nominees of the 27 registered parties, a large number of independent candidates are contesting the elections. Every seat has more or less competition. Among these, there is the possibility of a duel with a significant number of boats. Apart from this, several of Jatiya Party’s 26 constituencies, which have received concessions from Awami League, have crowded contests between Langal (JaPa) and Independents. Somewhere there is a fight between plows and boats. Again, the main opponents of the boat in two areas are the candidates of the new party Trinamool BNP or BNM.
Analysis of the overall data obtained from the field level has shown that Awami League nominated candidates can win as many as 240 seats across the country. And Jatiya Party, the opposition party in the current parliament, can win 10 to 12 seats. Members of 14 parties can be defeated in one or two of the 6 seats available from Awami League. And 4 to 5 candidates from other parties including Kalyan Party, Trinamool BNP, Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM), Bangladesh Supreme Party (BSP), Krishak Sramik Janata League can be elected.
And 35 to 40 seats are likely to be won by independent candidates. Out of this, 4 to 5 of the BNP leaders who participated in the election as individual candidates can win.
According to those concerned, even if several parties including BNP boycott the polls and call for a hartal, it will not be a hindrance in the polling process. These parties have already withdrawn from the position of resisting the election. As a result, the election will be held in an overall festive atmosphere. However, there is a risk of conflict in some areas due to the opposing positions of the supporters of some rival candidates. However, keeping these things in mind, the law and order forces have taken strict security measures to ensure peaceful voting.
Meanwhile, regardless of win or loss, the leaders and activists of ruling Awami League will make every effort to increase voter attendance at the center. Obaidul Quader, general secretary of the party, said, ‘I don’t want to say how many seats Awami League will get in the election. But Awami League will win. And the result of the vote will tell who will go to the opposition party.
He also said, “When the election is over, this matter will be clear, it will be clear. I don’t want to comment now on how many seats I will get. People have spontaneity. We will get good seats; But I don’t want to be like Mirza Fakhrul when saying how much.
According to the Election Commission, out of 44 registered parties, 27 are participating in the elections. The EC has canceled the nomination papers of all the candidates of the Democratic Party due to the conflict over the leadership. The total number of candidates of the remaining 27 parties is 1,434. Among them, Awami League has given candidates for maximum 266 seats. Among other parties, Jatiya Party (Japa) 265, Trinamool BNP 134, Bangladesh Congress 95, Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM) 54, BNF 45, Tariqat Federation 38, Islami Oikyajot 42 seats. Apart from this, 436 independent candidates are fighting in 221 seats.
It is known that even though the BNP did not participate in the election, the game in the polling field has been frozen ever since the Awami League opened up the opportunity for party leaders to become independent candidates to ensure competitive elections and voter turnout. In many constituencies, independents have given tough challenges to boat candidates. As in the last 10th election, the opportunity to be elected unopposed is closed, but there is no strong independent candidate against the boat candidate in hundreds of seats. The candidates of the ruling party will have to fight hard in the remaining 150 seats. In these constituencies, due to the conflict between local leaders and activists, the distance between the party and the local member of parliament and the lack of public opinion in favor of the new candidate, the boat may lose.
About the general situation of the election, the former vice-chancellor of Dhaka University AMS Arefin Siddique told, “Even though the polling will be held in a beautiful environment, even though it will be hindered initially due to provocative programs like BNP’s hartal. It is difficult to predict the results. However, the enthusiasm that is being observed among the people, the popular candidate will be chosen by the general voters. Since the Awami League and their main rivals will be independent candidates in the elections, although the symbols are different, the candidates of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the ideology of the Liberation War will be elected by the majority.

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