Zarif Mahmud: The volatility in the dollar market is not abating. It may last another year. In the future, the severity of the dollar crisis will decrease somewhat. But the price will increase further. There is a severe dollar crisis in the country for 14 months. In May last year, the inter-bank dollar price was Tk 87. Last June it increased to a maximum of Tk 109. During that time, the price per dollar increased by Tk 22 or 26 percent. Its prices have increased proportionally in all sectors. The import price of the dollar was Tk 87.25. Now it has increased to Tk 109.35. At that time, its price increased by Tk 22.10 or 25.33 percent. The price of a dollar in the curb market was Tk 88, now it has increased to Tk 114. The price has increased by Tk 26 or 30 percent.
According to market analysts, the rise in the value of the dollar will increase the cost of foreign debt repayment and import of goods. The value of money will decrease, the price of goods will increase. A deficit will arise in the current account of foreign exchange.
A rising dollar will affect the entire economy. They said that in order to overcome this situation, the total income of dollars including remittances and exports should be increased.
According to sources, when the price of all types of goods increases in the international market due to the impact of Russia-Ukraine war, import costs also increase. At the same time, the country’s export income and remittance flow decreased due to the global recession. On the one hand, the income of the dollar has decreased, on the other hand, the expenditure has increased. This led to a dollar crisis. When the war started in February last year, the dollar crisis became evident in May. Earlier, import restrictions were imposed from April. This control was extended from June. Opening of LCs without dollar resources has been stopped since last August. As a result, import controls have come. As the cost of industry and consumer sector of the country increased, so did the price of goods. At the same time, the price of the dollar increased. Inflation rate has increased at a mad horse pace. which is still ongoing.
To prevent the increase in the price of the dollar, the price is being controlled by Bangladesh Foreign Exchange Dealers Association (BAFEDA), an organization of chief executives of commercial banks involved in foreign exchange trading, for eight months. For seven months, the dollar has increased by an average of one taka per month. It has been increased by 50 paisa from July 2. As a result, export dollars are now being bought at Tk 107.50. At the same time, the interbank dollar price has been fixed at a maximum of Tk 109. The dollar rate of remittances remains unchanged at Tk 108.50. With this 2.5 percent government incentive will be available for every dollar Tk 111.25. The price of all sectors increased and the price of the dollar also increased in imports. Now the dollar is being sold in this sector at a maximum of Tk 109.35. But some banks are selling at Tk 112 to Tk 114. Traders complained that the bank is keeping the price of the dollar by Tk 122 in case of LC opening. President of FBCCI, the top organization of businessmen. Jasim Uddin said in a recent event, bankers are keeping the price of dollar like booty. When you want to keep the price of Tk 113-114.
In July 2021, the interbank rate was Tk 84 per dollar. In April 2022, it increased to Tk 86. Since then, the dollar has been increasing at a crazy pace. In May, it increased to more than Tk 87. In June, Tk 5 increased to Tk 92. In July, Tk 2 increased to about Tk 94. In August, one taka increased to around Tk 95. In September, it increased by another Tk 5 to about Tk 100. However, the price of the dollar sometimes exceeds Tk 100 in that month. In October, it increased by Tk 2 to Tk 102. It was limited to Tk 103 in November. Since December, it has increased by an average of one taka every month.
Meanwhile, the sale of cash dollars in banks has decreased a lot. Still the price has gone up. Cash dollars are now being sold at a maximum of Tk 112. But almost all banks are selling within Tk 110. In May last year, the price of the cash dollar was Tk 87.50 to Tk 88.
A major market for Hundi is the curb market. The dollar here was cheaper than the bank since Corona. In the middle of last year, the price of the dollar rose to Tk 100 in the curb market. Later, with the intervention of central bank and intelligence agency, its price decreased slightly but later increased again. Because at that time many people bought dollars to smuggle money out of the country. Due to which its price has increased in the carb market. Now the carb market is selling at an average of Tk 114 per dollar.
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