Home Bangladesh Political instability increases risk of collapse economy
Bangladesh - November 18, 2023

Political instability increases risk of collapse economy

Zarif Mahmud: The economy is already fragile due to the global recession and severe dollar shortage in the country. The country is already in political turmoil centered on the upcoming national elections. In this situation, the country’s leading economists fear that the economy will collapse if the instability increases.
They said that political consensus is necessary in this difficult economic period, if there is instability, not only the economy will collapse, but many other things can happen. Because foreigners don’t accept three consecutive similar elections. This is already clear. It will have a negative impact on the country’s economy as well as foreign and social sectors.
They also said that there is no alternative to holding participatory elections in the interest of the country and to advance the economic recovery programme. Otherwise, the situation will be more complicated. That is why a quick political agreement is necessary.
Meanwhile, thinking about the economy, the top business leaders called for the avoidance of election-centered violent programs. According to them, economics and politics complement each other. Therefore, if business and trade are hindered by agitated program, the whole country will suffer. The burden of which must be borne by all the people of the country. After the announcement of the schedule, economists and businessmen while talking to Yugantar called for these avoidances.
It should be noted that on Wednesday night, the Election Commission has announced the schedule for the upcoming National Assembly elections. According to this schedule, polling will be held on January 7 next year. Meanwhile, like-minded parties including BNP have already announced that if the unilateral schedule is announced, they will give more strict programs including continuous strikes and blockades. The economy will suffer more from such programs.
Economists and businessmen believe that the global crisis started with the war between Russia and Ukraine before the economy could recover from the damage caused by the corona virus. Due to this, the prices of almost all products in the international market increased. The import cost of the country increases and the prices of daily commodities continue to rise. In the country, the price of all kinds of products is increasing and the rate of inflation is increasing uncontrollably. At the same time, the dollar crisis became evident. Almost all types of business in the country are affected by this. If the political unrest around the elections increases further, business and trade will suffer more. They warned that the whole country will face great losses.
Former caretaker government advisor and eminent economist AB Mirza Azizul Islam said that due to the global and domestic situation, the economic condition is already bad. Meanwhile, the political situation is gradually becoming violent around the upcoming national elections. All forms of transport are being disrupted. It is disrupting the marketing of people and goods. This will further hamper economic activities. As a result, the GDP growth rate will decrease further.
He also said that investment will be disrupted if political instability continues in the country. Due to corona, global recession and dollar crisis, investment has already decreased. If volatility continues, investment will fall further. Banks are the main means of investment in the country. Credit flows to the private sector have declined. This means, investment is also decreasing. As investment increases, credit flow to the private sector also increases. Private sector development will be hampered due to reduced investment. This will reduce the employment rate. All together the growth rate will decrease.
He also said that political stability, peaceful environment, satisfactory law and order situation are prerequisites for increasing investment in a country. Without these, investment will not increase. If investment does not increase, the economy will not be dynamic. And if the economy is not dynamic, the unemployed will not have good employment. People’s quality of life will not improve.
Prominent economist and former president of Bangladesh Economic Association Mainul Islam said that if the political unrest in the country increases uncontrollably around the upcoming elections, the economy will collapse. The economy is already going through a tough time due to the global recession and severe dollar shortage in the country. The damage caused to the economy due to Corona has not yet been recovered. In this situation, political unrest has already started in the country around the national elections. If the ongoing instability increases further, the country’s economy will collapse.
He also said that if the election is one-sided or non-participatory, not only the economy, but more multifaceted negative effects may come to the country. Foreigners will not accept unilateral elections. Then various complications will appear in the economy.
He also said that there is no alternative to compromise to bring relief to the existing economic situation in the country. A participatory election shall be conducted through conciliation.
The former chief economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office Zahid Hossain said that the current political situation will definitely have a negative impact on the economic pressure. You don’t need to be an economist to say that. In this situation, how much attention will be possible to deal with complex crises including the ongoing dollar crisis, inflation, financial sector problems and defaulted loans is also a big question. Now the issue is how much the current political situation is conflictual, how widespread, how deep and how permanent, the amount of financial loss will depend on it. But naturally, economic activities are being hampered. The transition from this situation requires sincerity from all parties. Because in the political situation of 2014 it was said from various organizations that there was a huge economic loss at that time.
Bangladesh Made Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) president Farooq Hasan said politics and economy complement each other. Therefore, after the announcement of the schedule, the political parties should not give any such program, which will have a negative impact on the export-oriented industry and the economy. Currently, the garment industry is going through a tough time due to global factors, with export orders falling due to inflation. Production has been disrupted due to labor unrest in the past few days. In this situation, if a violent situation arises in the name of political program, there will be a danger of losing the order. The business leader hopes that the politicians will think about the economy of the country before giving the program.
He also said that the businessmen do not expect any such program, which will damage the country’s economy.
Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) Executive President Mohammad Hatem said that no coercive program is ever expected, be it election oriented or for any other reason. Political parties should think about the economy before giving their programs before elections. In the current situation, foreign buyers are worried about whether their previous orders will be delivered on time, let alone placing new orders. Therefore, there is concern about where the export-oriented industry will stand in the next three months. He urged the political parties to give peaceful programs keeping in mind the economic issues.
Acting president of Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) Fazlul Haque said, “To tell the truth, traders are in deep sea, no one is better. Same situation in all sectors. The country is now going through a period of crisis. Therefore, for the greater good, all the political parties, irrespective of the party affiliation, should participate in the elections together and save the country. Any disagreement with someone can be resolved through dialogue. He thinks that any party should think about the country’s economy before giving its programme.

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