New forecast of IMF
Staff Correspondent: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave good news about the global economy. In the span of three months, the agency increased the growth rate of global GDP, while the rate of inflation decreased slightly. Inflation rates have started to decline globally. That is why it will decrease further in the future. The growth rate will pick up slightly even with a contractionary monetary policy due to lower inflation. Bangladesh’s growth rate has been kept unchanged at 5.5 percent.
This information was obtained from the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook Update, July 2023” report published on Tuesday. The report was released from the IMF headquarters in Washington. According to the report, the global growth rate will increase by 2.2 percent to 3 percent this year. Last April, the agency had forecast global growth at 2.8 percent. They picked up growth rates slightly as global economic activity picked up faster than expected. At the same time, next year’s growth has also been kept unchanged at 3 percent. In addition, the company has slightly reduced the rate of inflation globally. Last April, it said that inflation this year will be 7 percent. It is said that the price inflation will be 6.8 percent by reducing 2.2 percent from this. Global inflation rate was 8.6 percent last year. The IMF has forecast inflation to fall further to 5.2 percent next year.
According to the report, inflation has been reined in globally by pursuing a contractionary monetary policy. This will reduce the cost of living of people. As a result, economic activities will be strengthened. This will increase the growth rate of GDP.
Large economies have made economic activity quite dynamic. Due to this, the growth rate of the countries of USA, UK, Canada, China, India, Japan, Brazil will increase. However, growth forecasts for several countries have been cut. Among them, the growth rate of Argentina, Germany, Korea, Netherlands, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has been slightly reduced compared to last April. Those concerned said that most of the inflation in Bangladesh is due to imports. Apart from this, there is also an effect of increasing the price of products in the country’s market. A decrease in the global inflation rate will also reduce commodity prices. At the same time, the import cost of Bangladesh will also decrease. As a result, the rate of inflation in the country’s market will also decrease. Last June, inflation in the country was 9.74 percent.
According to the IMF report, US growth will increase from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent. The growth of European Union countries will increase from 8.0 percent to 9.0 percent. However, Zamarni’s growth will decline to negative 3.3 percent. Fan’s will increase slightly to 10.8 percent from 7 percent. Italy will increase from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent. UK growth was forecast to be negative. Now it has been slightly increased to 4.4 percent positive. However, the country is facing a major economic crisis. Canada’s growth will increase from 1.5 percent to 1.7 percent. Among the Asian countries, Japan will increase from 1.3 percent to 1.4 percent, while China’s growth is kept unchanged at 5.2 percent. India’s growth has increased from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent.
Pakistan’s growth will be negative at 5.5 percent, down from 6.6 percent. Their negative growth will decrease to 1.1 percent. Indonesia’s growth was kept unchanged at 5 percent, Malaysia’s at 4.5 percent and Thailand’s at 3.4 percent.
The average growth of the Middle East countries will decrease slightly. It will be reduced from 2.9 percent to 2.5 percent. In this, the growth of Saudi Arabia will decrease from 3.1 percent to 1.9 percent. Turkey’s growth will increase from 2.7 percent to 3 percent and Iran’s growth will increase from 2 percent to 2.5 percent.
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